Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Prepare for Phase 2

So most of you have probably never heard of Ed Howdershelt, but he has one of my favorite quotes of all time when he said: "There are four boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order."

For the last 3 months I have been on my soap box both in person and on this blog for one Ron Paul. Tomorrow marks the beginning of phase 2... the ballot box. The Iowa Caucus happens tomorrow evening. In the Republican caucuses, each voter casts his or her vote by secret ballot. Voters are presented blank sheets of paper with no candidate names on them. After listening to some campaigning for each candidate by caucus participants, they write their choices down and the Republican Party of Iowa tabulates the results at each precinct. The non-binding results are tabulated and reported to the state party which releases the results to the media. Delegates from the precinct caucuses go on to the County Convention, which chooses delegates to the District Convention, which in turn selects delegates to the State Convention. Thus it is the Republican State Convention, not the precinct caucuses, which select the ultimate delegates to the Republican National Convention in Iowa.

While I am doubtful Ron Paul will actually win the Iowa nomination, I am hopefully he will place third. I believe a third place victory for Ron Paul would solidify him as a "major candidate" this election cycle and give him a very real shot at victory. That being said, I am probably "expecting" Paul to finish 5th (most media organizations have him 6th, but I think he will upset at least one front runner) which won't be bad... but still indicates a long uphill climb for Dr. Paul. If he finishes 6th or worse, well I won't be ready to fold up the tent, but he would need a VERY strong showing in New Hampshire to keep up his momentum. If he finishes 6th or worse in both NH and Iowa it will probably be time for Dr. Paul to give up the Republican nominee and consider either running as an independent (and saving his loot for the general election) or throwing his support behind someone else (although I don't see anyone else he could/would support in this field).

I guess at this point it's down to watch and wait...

Go Ron Go!

2 comments:

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.justin said...

this makes a little more sense.

so... who's going to be at SHS?
can anyone vote?

how does this system work in washington?

and i still want to know what the difference is between a "caucus" and a "primary election".